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Key findings

  • Staffing levels stable in April, after falling in prior four months 
  • Business confidence hits six-month high
  • Downturns in output and new business ease


Firms have reported that increased global economic uncertainty, particularly related to US tariff announcements, is significantly impacting demand across various regions. The Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker posted below the neutral 50.0 threshold for a fifth successive month in April. While the latest reading of 47.4 was up from 45.9 in March to reach a three-month high, it signalled a solid decline in Scottish private sector activity overall. 


Commenting on the Tracker’s findings, Sebastian Burnside, Royal Bank of Scotland Chief Economist, said: 


“The tracker this month reflects the challenges that economic uncertainty can create for UK businesses of all scales. Firms across the UK reported a challenging start to the second quarter, with demand for goods and services falling in all areas amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty and rising prices. While output and new orders both declined further in Scotland, rates of reduction did soften since March. 

"More encouragingly, Scottish firms were more upbeat about the year-ahead outlook for output in April, although growth expectations are lower than they have typically been in the past. We cannot ignore the backdrop during which this survey was carried out but regardless, as we’ve seen in the past, UK business is resilient and can always offer reasons for optimism throughout.”

 

Royal Bank of Scotland UK Regional Growth Tracker (1.8MB)

This material is published by NatWest Group plc (“NatWest Group”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by NatWest Group and NatWest Group makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of NatWest Group, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Copyright © NatWest Group. All rights reserved.

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