Key findings:
- Inflation continues to affect Scottish businesses
- Firms signal further declines in output and new orders
- But staffing levels are stabilising and positivity about 2026 growth remains
The latest PMI data for Scotland signalled further decreases in output and new orders in December. However, workforce numbers broadly stabilised, while business confidence regarding the year ahead remained positive.
The headline Royal Bank of Scotland Growth tracker– a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of Scotland’s manufacturing and service sectors – rose fractionally from 48.0 in November to 48.1 in December, to indicate a fourth successive monthly fall in overall business activity.
The rate of decrease remained modest, however. Companies often attributed the latest decline to falling customer numbers and the rising cost of living.
Judith Cruickshank, Chair, Scotland Board, Royal Bank of Scotland, commented: "2025 proved to be a challenging year for Scottish businesses, with the latest Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker data signalling further falls in both output and new business.
"It is clear that inflation is continuing to put pressure on companies and customers. The latest data shows steeper increases in input prices at the end of the year, suggesting that margins are tightening.
"Despite these challenges, Scottish firms remain hopeful that 2026 will be a year of growth. The jobs market also began to stabilise in December after falls in employment over the last two months."
Please see the regional report in full:
Royal Bank of Scotland Regional Growth Tracker (PDF, 1,797KB)
