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Key findings

  • Scotland Growth Tracker records renewed contraction in output 
  • Staffing levels cut for first time in nearly two years 
  • Confidence for year ahead outlook at 24-month low 

The Scotland Growth Tracker – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – fell below the neutral level of 50.0 for the first time in a year, recording 46.9 in December, down from 51.1 in November. The decline was sharp and marked the most significant drop in activity since October 2023, with both manufacturing and services sectors reporting a decrease in output. 

 

Judith Cruickshank, Chair, Scotland Board, Royal Bank of Scotland, commented: 

"Following an impressive 11-month growth period, during which the average Growth Tracker reading was 52.5, 2024 ended with a renewed decline in activity across Scotland's private sector experienced. New business decreased for the third consecutive month, prompting companies to adopt a more cautious outlook for 2025. 

“Additionally, there has been a resurgence in job cuts, as firms align their staffing levels with reduced business demands. Whether this is a temporary fluctuation, time will tell. 

"Price pressures have remained largely unchanged, with input price inflation in line with the long-run trend but output charges increasing at a historically high rate, indicating a persistent challenge regarding overall inflation.”

 

Please see the regional report in full:

Royal Bank of Scotland UK Regional Growth Tracker (PDF, 1,855KB)

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