Much remains unknown, but here are some key dates between now and 28 October that could bring the government’s plans into clearer focus:

Businesses, professional bodies, charities and other organisations can submit policy representations to the Treasury ahead of the Budget. The submission portal will close at 11.59pm on Wednesday 9 September.

These representations do not determine policy, but they give organisations an opportunity to provide evidence and comment on existing government measures.

The House of Commons is scheduled to enter its party conference recess on 16 September, returning on 12 October. This means much of the political debate during the second half of September will take place outside of Parliament.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its latest decision on interest rates. The decision, with accompanying minutes and assessment of inflationary pressures, could affect the wider financial environment in which the Budget is being prepared.

Labour’s annual conference will take place in Liverpool, with the Chancellor’s speech scheduled for the Monday. The speeches made by John Healey and Andy Burnham will likely provide the clearest public indication yet of the government’s priorities ahead of the Budget.

Conference announcements won’t necessarily translate directly into Budget measures. However, the language used and the issues given prominence could provide important clues about the government’s developing economic programme.

The government has announced that VAT will be temporarily removed from domestic electricity bills from 1 October (for the remainder of the financial year). The measure was one of Burnham’s first announcements as Prime Minister and was presented as immediate support for households facing cost of living pressures.

When MPs return from conference recess, there will be just over two weeks until the Budget. Political scrutiny is likely to intensify, although by then, the most consequential decisions will already be moving through the government and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasting process.

The OBR normally requires significant measures to be submitted before the Budget so that it can assess their economic and financial effects, while measures capable of materially changing the economic forecast must typically be submitted just over a week before the Budget.

The latest labour market figures will be published on 20 October. The following day will bring both September’s inflation figures and the latest public sector finance statistics. These will be among the final major official economic releases before Budget Day.

The public finance figures will be particularly closely watched. They will show how borrowing and debt are developing, compared with the OBR’s previous expectations. Although the Chancellor’s ongoing room for manoeuvre will ultimately depend on the new five-year forecast issued by the OBR on Budget Day.

John Healey will deliver his first Budget as Chancellor on Wednesday 28 October. The OBR will publish an updated economic and fiscal outlook on the same day, setting out its forecasts for growth, inflation, borrowing, debt and government revenues.

The speech itself will provide the headline announcements, while the accompanying documents released by the government will contain the detail around when measures take effect, who may be affected and how much they are expected to raise or cost.

Andy Burnham has suggested that he wants his government to represent more than just a change in leadership. In his first speech as Prime Minister, he described the moment as a “circuit breaker for Britain” and promised “a new political model and a new economic model”.

Burnham has also emphasised the importance of collaboration between central, regional and local government, and the Chancellor has said the Budget will move money and power out of Westminster and into communities around Britain. The government has also confirmed that mayors will in future retain a greater share of locally generated revenue, beginning with business rates, with a roadmap for income tax retention expected at the Budget.

Therefore, devolution and regional growth may sit closer to the centre of the Budget than they have in previous fiscal events. However, John Healey has indicated that the Budget will comply with the government’s fiscal rules and retain a buffer against economic uncertainty.

The central question is therefore likely to be how the government reconciles its ambition for a new economic model with the practical limits imposed by borrowing, debt, inflation and economic growth.

Premier will be following developments closely in the coming weeks, leading with expert commentary, analysis and practical guidance before, during and after the Budget.

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